Open Thread: who’s your money on?

With only one more day to go before we hit the polling booths, let’s compare theories, shall we?

Who do you think will win the Federal Election? Feel free to be as vague or as detailed as you like.

Who will hold the balance of the power in the Senate?

What do you think the chances are of the Greens picking up a Lower House seat?

My call? Labor will be returned with a greatly decreased majority. In fact, they’ll just squeak in. Adam Bandt will just fail to pick up the seat of Melbourne, but the Greens will hold the balance of power in the Senate.

So how about you?

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11 Responses to Open Thread: who’s your money on?

  1. Loki Carbis says:

    Pretty much in agreement with you and the Ben. Especially as regards Bowtell and Bandt – much as I’d like to see him get in, I don’t see it happening. That said, the high profile he’s brought the Greens in Victoria is probably good for at least one Senate seat. And Fielding, one way or another, will not be claiming a parliamentary pension.

    So yeah, Labour to lose some Senate seats, the Greens to get most of them, capturing hopefully an effective enough balance of power to outweigh the current Independents as well as the LNP.

    To some extent, the Sex Party is a wildcard in the Senate. Much as I’d like to see them get in (hey, I’m handing out How To Votes for them on Saturday), I can’t think that it’s very likely. That said, they’ve attracted a fair amount of attention, and are likely to make a persuasive alternate to donkey or casual voting among younger voters. So I see them hitting the magic 4%, but not the even magicaler quota, with the vast majority of their preferences flowing to the Greens.

    In the Lower House, I think the ALP will be back with a reduced majority – even money on whether they keep Bennelong or not, for example.

  2. Brett Dalton says:

    Labor to win with Greens have the balance. Liberal swing in QLD won’t be as big as people expect and NSW may well be worse, what ever happens it’s going to be messy.

  3. Ben says:

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    I agree with you, the ALP will be returned with a reduced majority. We *might* get a hung parliament, but probably not.

    Obviously Melbourne will be hotly contested between the Greens and the ALP and it is the best chance for the Greens to get a seat in the House of Reps. If Bandt does get in there, it will only be by a very small margin.

    Dave won’t, unfortunately, stand a chance in Higgins, but I’d like to see him at least beat Family First. That, of course, is a hope rather than a prediction.

    I’m sure the Greens will gain the balance of power in the Senate. The question I’m more concerned with there is who will pick up Steve Fielding’s seat? In the past it would have gone to the Democrats, but they’re dead. The question is whether it will go to the Greens or not.

    As much as I’d like to see that seat go to the Sex Party, I don’t think that’s going to happen. So after them I’d like to see it go to Richard Di Natale, especially since he explained the Clive Hamilton debacle to me.

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    • Dave stands a good chance of beating Family First if only because of his position on the ticket (second). I think he’d be happy with that.

      Fielding’s seat … hmmm. Good question. I’m tempted to say it would go to the Greens. It’s a truism that people say they’ll vote Green then run back to the major parties when they’re actually in the booth, but I think this time it’s a real chance.

      I’m really, really hoping that there won’t be a hung Parliament. I don’t fancy the idea of anyone being beholden to Windsor, Oakeshott and Katter.

      • Ben says:

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        Yeah, Dave and I discussed his chances the other day and he really wants to beat the snot out of Family First, which is fair enough. I’m going to have to keep an eye on the returns in Higgins.

        I think the Greens are going to get a good run in the Senate. Even my prude of a brother plans to vote for them in the Senate, which I’m pretty sure he didn’t do at the last election.

        Like you, I don’t like the idea of some of the lunatics in the House holding the balance of power there. Hopefully it won’t be quite that close.

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      • Rockstar Philosopher says:

        I think I saw it at Possum’s blog over at Crikey, but the idea that people say they’ll vote green then don’t in the booth is a myth. At the last few elections, the green vote actually goes up in the election compared to the polls. Let’s hope this stays true this time.

  4. Rockstar Philosopher says:

    Greens will get up around 15% of the vote in the senate nationally and will pick up Melbourne. ALP will lose less than 2 seats, possibly pick up some.

    • So you think the ALP will definitely lose Melbourne. Where else do you think they’ll be likely to lose a seat?

      • Rockstar Philosopher says:

        They’ll lose some in Qld and NSW, but will pick up some in Vic and SA. Also, there will be some churn in Qld and NSW; there’s been some redistributions that put about 6 Lib seats as marginally Labor. Ditto WA, but I think that’s gone cos of the mining tax and the fear the troglodytes in the West have about having a woman in charge. I think most of the Lib gains have come from firming the base, meaning most of their increase in the TPP will be in safe seats.

      • Rockstar Philosopher says:

        Of course I have to add that I haven’t paid a whole lot of attention to this campaign, so I don’t really know what I’m talking about 😛 I’m largely reflecting on the feeling I had last election, that feeling of uncertainty, everyone was saying “closest election in years”, which they’re saying again now. As if ’98 and ’01 never happened. The fact is, to change government, the opposition will need over 52% of the TPP and I just can’t see that happening.

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